Po Laiya (603605): Performance in line with expectations Explosive models drive high revenue growth
Event: The company announced the third quarter report of 2019, and achieved revenue of 20 in the first three quarters.
800 million (+33.
35%), net profit attributable to mother 2.
400 million (+32.
04%), net 北京夜生活网 profit after deducting non-return to mother 2.
3.8 billion (+41.
50%); In Q3 2019, it achieved revenue of 7 quarters.
5.2 billion (+45.
15%), net profit attributable to mother 0.
6.7 billion (+26.
07%), net profit after deduction is 0.
6.7 billion (+47.
Explosive models have driven high revenue growth, and the expected trend in the fourth quarter continues the company’s skincare product category 6 in Q3 2019.
7.3 billion (+47.
6%), accounting for 89.
5%; cleansing products category 0.
4.2 billion (-22.
6%), accounting for 5.
6%; beauty products category 0.
3.7 billion (+333.
9%), accounting for 4.
Company at 6.
The Black Sea Salt Bubble Mask launched during 18 years, relying on multi-channel promotion + online red belts, has suddenly become a new explosion, driving the July-September 苏州桑拿网 Perla Tmall flagship store up to + 177% / + 198% / + 66%.
Double Eleven’s main product is the One-Piece Customized Bubble Mask. At present, 160,000 users have completed their reservations. It is expected that the fourth quarter will continue to explode and drive high revenue growth.
Explosion masks affect single-quarter gross profit margin, and sales expenses remain stable. The company’s gross profit margin increased by zero in the first three quarters.
71pct to 63.
85%, mainly due to the increase in the proportion of high-moisture moisturizing kits and essences, while sales of products with high gross profit margins in online channels increased.
Q3 single quarter gross margin fell by 4.
62 points to 60.
45%, mainly because of the large amount of pop-up bubble mask attached, lowering the gross profit margin, thereby lowering the overall level.
If you continue to focus on bubble masks in the fourth quarter, the gross profit margin may drop slightly.
In addition, while vigorously marketing and creating explosive models, the selling expenses remained stable overall, with Q1-Q3 selling expenses 39.
58pct), Q3 single season is 39.
83pct), which reflects the company’s good ability to control expenses. Profit forecast and investment recommendations take into account the company’s fair incentive plan announced in 2018, combined with operating conditions and marketing layout in the second half of the year, we raised our revenue expectations, but the decline in gross profit margin made the profit basically unchanged from our previous expectations.
It is expected that the net profit attributable to mothers for 2019-2021 will be 3.
6.7 billion, corresponding to a return of 1.
31 yuan, PE is 39.
The 40-fold estimate in 2020 corresponds to a market value of about 21 billion, and there is still room for growth of 16%. If the market maintains a 50-fold higher estimate, there is about 50% of space.
It is currently maintained at 102.
Target price of 8 yuan, corresponding to 40 times PE, “overweight” grade.
Risk warning: New product promotion is lower than expected, cosmetics consumption is lower than expected.