SAIC Group (600104) Important Events Comments: December growth rate is waiting for GM adjustment
Matters: The company released its December production and sales report, and the group currently sells 69.
80,000, at least 5.
2019 preliminary group sales 623.
80,000 cars, at least -11.
Comment: In December, the group’s wholesale growth rate was converted to +5.
Among them, Volkswagen, SAIC Motor was affected by the base more than the growth rate, GM’s decline was still the same, Shanghai Tong Wuling’s decline was narrowed.
In the fourth quarter, the average value of the other three major auto companies except GM-1% increased significantly. Looking at Volkswagen, SAIC Motor increased, and GM throughput narrowed down.
1) SAIC Volkswagen: 23.
40,000 vehicles, up from + 38%, + 13% from the previous month, main models such as Lavay, Passat, Tiguan continued to increase sequentially; 60 in the fourth quarter.
90,000 vehicles, + 11% a year, + 29% MoM; 2) SAIC-GM: 12.
40,000 vehicles, -28% before that, + 4% month-on-month, still maintaining a low adjustment state, it is expected that the inventory will continue to be removed; Cadillac 1.
The number of 80,000 vehicles increased by 859 from the previous month, and the Angko flag was 0.
30,000 vehicles increased slightly by 655 from the previous month; 38 in the fourth quarter.
10,000 vehicles, -29% a year, -1% MoM; 3) SAIC passenger cars: 7.
70,000 vehicles, previously + 11%, + 22% MoM; 20 in 4Q.
10,000 vehicles, + 5% for one year, + 26% month-on-month; 4) Shanghai Wuling: 22.
30,000 vehicles, -1% a year, + 39% MoM, of which 13 are passenger cars in a narrow sense.
80,000 vehicles, up to -7% from the previous quarter, + 44% from the previous month, the annual decline has narrowed significantly, Baojun 510, Baojun RS-3 increased significantly compared to the previous quarter; 53 in the fourth quarter.
30,000 vehicles, 6% per year, + 39% MoM.
Group sales fell by 11 in 2019.
5%, with an expected growth of 6% in 2020.
Volkswagen 2 million units in -3% in 19 years, and 20.06 million units in + 20% in 20 years.
GM is 1.6 million units / -19%, and it is expected to be 1.72 million units / + 7% in 20 years.
SAIC took 670,000 vehicles / -4%, and it is expected that 720,000 vehicles / + 7% in 20 years.
Wuling 1.66 million units / -20%, and 1.76 million units / 6% are expected in 2020.
The Group has 6.24 million vehicles and will be -11 in the future.
5%, expected 6.61 million vehicles 西安耍耍网 in 20 years, + 6% for the whole year.
1H20 is concerned about the recovery of the general department.
GM’s decline in the second half of the year expanded, and affected by the industry, the reorganization of the company’s initiative to adjust its product line, destocking also formed an impact. It is expected that the re-launch of the model in 20 years will boost sales.
Wuling’s negative growth is mainly affected by the shrinking of low-end demand, and 1H20 will usher in a low-cardinality series.
The market’s pessimistic expectations for the general system are already in the potential, and fundamental data has room for improvement with expectations.
2H20 follows Volkswagen MEB, Audi progress.
Volkswagen’s MEB plant is the first domestic pure-electric platform plant with a production capacity of 360,000 vehicles. It is expected to start production in October 2020.
Except for the Q4 e-tron, SAIC-Volkswagen Audi is expected to mass-produce the A7L. The luxury car project will bring relatively higher profitability and increase to SAIC-Volkswagen in the future. It is estimated that the margin of safety appears.
SAIC Group is still the industry’s choice of deployment, with comprehensive competitiveness, and its forward-looking layout is the highest among car companies.
The company’s existing PE TTM 9.
6 times, PB 1.
2 times, still low since 2014. The safety margin is obvious, and we believe that the catalyst is correct for the industry fundamentals.
Investment suggestion: Combined with the sales volume in 2018, we adjusted the company’s net profit attributable to mothers from 2019 to 2021 to 28.6 billion, 30.3 billion, 32.7 billion (formerly 28.6 billion, 31.9 billion, 35 billion), with a growth rate of -21%+ 6%, + 8%, corresponding to the current PE of 9.
Maintain 10 times the 2020 target PE and adjust the target price to 25 accordingly.
9 yuan (previous value was 27.
3 yuan), considering the industry’s business climate is expected to continue to repair, maintain the “strong push” rating.
Risk warning: Macroeconomics is less than expected, and GM and Wuling are performing worse than expected.